DEAD MAN WALKING

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I am certain that – barring divine intervention – the United States is finished; not only as a superpower, but possibly even as a single, unified nation…

January 27, 2006 0800 PST (FTW): The reason why so many Americans on the left and right, whether supporters or opponents of Neocon tyranny in Washington, are “sold” on the idea that American or Israeli air strikes against Iran will take place this March (or soon thereafter) is simple. It is more frightening for them to ponder the prospect of an impotent America standing exposed and vulnerable in a world that largely – and for good reason – hates it. Global economic meltdown, chaos and nuclear war are more scary than the evil that Americans have incrementally compromised themselves into endorsing. The uncertainty of a world no longer tethered to a US center – even one that many verbally oppose – represents an intolerable leap into the unknown. That leap, however, is a fait accompli.

The US bluffs onward with its saber-rattling rhetoric but the whole planet is calling that bluff. Foreign investment in Iran is increasing, not decreasing. The planet is throwing money into Iran.

Every day I receive three or four stories from diverse sources – marginal internet researchers and mainstream media outlets – stating why an attack on Iran is, a good idea, or likely, or inevitable. In these two companion pieces, FTW’s Military Affairs Editor, Stan Goff (retired US Army Special Forces and former West Point instructor) and I delineate the reasons why such an attack will not (and probably cannot) happen. That is, of course, with one remotely necessary caveat: that stupidity beyond belief has overtaken the US and Israel. I would rephrase that to also include suicidal tendencies beyond belief. Stan and I both know something about these kinds of operations. I’ve been studying them for 30 years and Stan has been living them for that long.

Any military attack on Iran of any kind will mean the end of the world as we know it. The same thing is true of a US-sponsored assassination attempt on Hugo Chavez or any other “regime change” or intervention anywhere. All such developments would be universally perceived as US-sanctioned in any case. There is much less reason to fear the US than there was three or four years ago. Near-toothless tigers with bad gums and fetid gingivitis breath do not inspire fear and awe. They invite attack. A pressure-cooker of pent-up global rage against the US awaits only a pinprick to make it blow.

As I said in lectures throughout 2005 and in my new DVD Denial Stops Here, the world has drawn a line in the sand around Iran. China, Asia, Europe and even Britain cannot (and will not) do without Iranian oil and gas. In 2004, China alone signed $200 billion in long-term oil and gas deals with Iran. Europe and the rest of Asia are in similar investment positions. Japan cannot do without Iranian energy. Malaysia cannot do without Iranian energy. South Korea cannot do without Iranian energy. Germany cannot do without Iranian energy. France cannot do without Iranian energy. India cannot do without Iranian energy. And especially Great Britain cannot do without Iranian energy; especially since four months ago the UK became a net energy importer as its North Sea production continued to plummet with a decline rate approaching 10% per year.

Britain has already ruled out military moves against Iran and it will likely oppose US moves even for sanctions (a necessary precursor) in the UN Security Council.

The world has not forgotten the lies used by the US to justify its invasion of Iraq, nor has it somehow missed the fact that we are getting our Imperial ass kicked there. The world has not missed today’s headlines that the US Army is stretched to the breaking point. “The Army?” you say. “But these are going to be air strikes!”

Stan Goff has spelled it out eloquently in his article: any US or Israeli attack on Iran will give the Iraqi insurgency a combined dose of steroids and meth crystals that will spell utter defeat for the US in Iraq and end the ultra-fragile SCIRI (pro-Iranian Shia)-centered coalition that is now on life support.

Those fueling the “attack Iran” hype argue that “precision” air strikes would likely not involve US ground troops. They forget that as the US has become bogged in the Iraqi quagmire next door, it has made extensive (if tenuous) bargains with Shia militias and the pro-Iranian SCIRI regime that would undoubtedly drop all support for a US-led peace in Iraq in the event of such an attack. As Goff so aptly points out, an attack on Iran, even by Israel alone, would lead directly to a US defeat in Iraq. This would come at a time when US forces are stretched to the breaking point.

Iran has made it abundantly clear that the whole world will suffer oil shortages in the event of a US or Israeli attack. All Iran has to do is to reduce exports and the rest of the world’s powers will turn on the US in a minute. The recent lessons of Ukraine and Georgia demonstrate what sudden (and mild by comparison) energy shortages can do in a world where demand has likely already exceeded supply.

Iran is also in a position to close the Straits of Hormuz through which about half of the world’s oil passes. It is known (or reported) to have Excocet, Silkworm and even the deadly Russian Sunburn missiles that would make the job easy.

Oil is not the only weapon Iran can use to rally the whole world (including Europe) against the US. Iran’s is a thriving economy, swollen with petrodollars. That money is being used to purchase European/Japanese/Korean-made autos, consumer goods, and high-cost technology. Iran is filled with technicians, managers and investments from all of the above countries. It was Russia that sold Iran the technology for much of its nuclear research including the Bushehr nuclear reactor. Russia has also sold Iran surface to air missile systems. China has sold Iran all kinds of military hardware.

The Iranian military is orders of magnitude stronger and better equipped to retaliate throughout the region than was Iraq’s. With that in mind, I strongly recommend Goff’s brilliant Full Spectrum Disorder to get a glimpse as to how thoroughly Iraqi insurgents have beaten the US military outside the box. The only people who don’t seem to know this are American taxpayers.

Economic sanctions against Iran are even more toothless. Should the US try to weaken Iran through economic sanctions it would immediately threaten the economies of China, Europe, India and East Asia. That is, if the US could get the sanctions through the UN in the first place. If Iran has no money to spend then all those investments and technicians and factory reps have to go home.

On an almost daily basis, stories are hitting the mainstream that Iran is or isn’t moving all of its foreign assets to Asia and out of British and European banks. The mixed messages alone are enough to roil the markets and that’s exactly the object lesson Iran wants to drive home.

Don’t hold your breath, Condi. They aren’t going to happen. Any sanctions that might come out as a result of US pressure won’t even make Iran blink. The best the US can hope for is maybe travel restrictions on Iranian leaders (yawn). And if that’s all the US gets after taking the matter to the UN, the US will appear even weaker.

The permanent members of the UN Security Council include Britain, France, China and Russia. All have one-vote, unilateral veto power. Other current Security Council members include Japan, who will certainly oppose anything that might slow down Iran’s purchases of their products. These nations can read the writing on the wall. The US consumption binge is ending on a note of severe indigestion and flatulence. The US economy is crumbling and the signs are clear that Joe America is waking up to the fact that he’s already in way over his head.

The key to understanding why Iran is under such pressure from the Empire is simple: The oil bourse scheduled to open in Iran this March will trade in Euros instead of dollars. The entire world (including Japan, China, Russia, India, Latin America and Europe) is eager for this bourse to open. For it is there that they will free themselves from the indirect taxation that has been imposed upon them by the US dollar since the Bretton Woods agreement was ratified after World War II.

True, dollar hegemony began when the dollar was decoupled from gold during the Great Depression. It gained strength when, during the Second World War, the US supplied and fed a beleaguered world, accepting payment in gold. Oil, gold and the dollar are in heavy, heavy play right now. It is impossible for all three to rise in value at the same time. On that front it’s two-to-one against the dollar.*

This threat to dollar hegemony was a major reason for the removal of Saddam Hussein. He started trading Iraqi oil for Euros in 1999. Though he wasn’t taken seriously at first, by 2000 he was attracting enough international business to scare the bejesus out of Imperial Washington.

The only problem is that the Empire has suffered a case of premature ejaculation. It spent all of its resources in Iraq: economic, political, moral, and military. “They’re gone and there ain’t no more.” Like the men on the bridge at Eindhoven which proved too far for Sir Bernard Law Montgomery in 1944’s Operation Market Garden, Iran can now stand, looking across the bridge which it controls and give the US the raspberry. Like the rest of the world, Iran understands that the US cannot cross that bridge without risking losing the war. Any futile attempt by the US and Israel to attack Iran would be the single largest “nuclear moment” since August 9, 1945, surpassing the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.

The world understands this calculus and is betting – whether they admit it or not – on Iran. The one ace up the Empire’s sleeve, PROMIS software and other advanced hacking programs, could be used to sabotage the bourse’s operations. But then that would be like the US leaving a calling card saying “We did it.” The world knows what the US is capable of in terms of “data mining.” About a sixth of my book Crossing the Rubicon was devoted to that technology and its deep connection to the Empire.

As for Israel, an air attack on Iran would almost certainly result in an uncontrollable chain reaction throughout the Muslim world. Beyond all reason the state of Israel would be suddenly surrounded on all sides with never-before-seen levels of animosity. I cannot fail to note the resemblance to events narrated in the Book of Revelation. There can be no doubt about what the Fundamentalist Christian PACs want. Since Israel, not Iran, is the only nuclear power in the region it kind of makes one wonder.

Either way, the spring and summer of 2006 are going to be a turning point in human history that no one will forget. Those who hope the US will attack Iran may be supporting not a turning point in history but rather history’s end.

* Much of the above analysis comes from the best economic teaching paper I have read in ten years. It is a must-read called “The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse”by Krassimir Petrov, Ph.D. Commissioned by investment banker Douglas Bowey (whom I have met), it was first published (as far as I can tell) in a long, seven page version on January 16th at Le Metropole Cafe. Le Metropole Cafe is a subscriber-only site that features commentary by some of the best economic minds on the planet. Shorter versions of the article are proliferating over some of my favorite internet sites as free reprints under US Copyright laws. I strongly recommend subscribing at Le Metropole to get the long version. If not, all you have to do is Google the title and you’ll see how far and wide this great work has spread.